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Bloombergin suosikkikirjoittajani  John Authers:

Pax Volckeriana Is Done. Welcome to the New Order
The secular trend that led to ever-lower bond yields starting in the 1980s has ended. How long this new regime will last isn’t yet written.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-10/bond-yields-pax-v…

Shifting Bond Yield Curve Scrambles Market’s Recession Signal
The yield curve is less inverted after jump in long rates
Spurred by strong economic data, it adds a new drag on growth

[...]

When Does the Curve Go Back to Normal?
Usually, the inversion starts to disappear as a recession nears and traders anticipate that the Fed will start cutting rates — and knock down the short-term yields accordingly. A movement like that was seen earlier this year, when fears of a banking crisis flared.

In industry argot, such a move is called a bull steepener because the prices of bonds are rising. In that case, the curve is steepening only because short-term bonds are rallying the most, resulting in those yields sliding back below long-term ones.

What’s Different This Time?
The recent move, instead, is what’s known as a bear steepener. Bond prices are falling, led by longer-dated ones. As a result, their yields are rising more quickly than others.

So the steepening isn’t happening for the usual pre-recession reason. Instead, investors are concluding that policymakers are in no rush to cut rates, given how strong the economy has been. Long-bond yields are pushing up to reflect those expectations. On top of that, the supply of Treasury bonds has surged as the federal government’s deficit keeps growing, likely adding to the downward pressure on prices.

Where Does That Leave Us?
If it looked at first glance like the shift in the yield curve was a solidly positive sign — one indicating that the economy is now at less risk of a recession than it was — that’s probably not the case.

True, it shows traders aren’t expecting the Fed to shift into firefighting mode soon. Even so, it’s almost certain to further dampen the economy as it ripples through to mortgages, credit cards and business loans. That will tighten financial conditions further. That may be a welcome development to the Fed. The risk, though, is that it hits the brakes so hard that the economy stalls completely.

Bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital, told the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer conference in New York recently that the market’s moves are a clear “recession warning” and predicted that job losses will start piling up by the end of the year.

In that sense, the forecasting prowess of the inverted curve may be affirmed. Just at a very high cost.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/shifting-bond-yield-…

Laitetaan nyt samalla vaivalla vähän enemmänkin näitä ilmaisia / pelkkä rekisteröimispakko-lähteitä:

Päivä- ja viikkokatsaukset, sitten isompia teemakatsauksia satunnaisin väliajoin.
https://research.danskebank.com/research/#/

Viikkokatsauksia, suomeksi myös aamukatsaus, teemakatsauksia ja lyhyempiä blogikirjoituksia.
https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/research

Jatkuvaa kommentointia päivätasolla, viikkokatsauksia ja myös poimintoja talon ulkopuolisista lähteistä

https://think.ing.com/

Vain yhdestä aiheesta kerrallaan kommenttitekstin sisältävä viikkokatsaus,
https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Views/InterHomeView.aspx?Lang=en-US

Satunnaisia artikkeleita

https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RPS_EN-PROD/RPSHOME.alias

Eurooppa- ja jenkkiaamunavauskommentit. Myös maksullinen ”squawk”-tyyppinen äänifeedi.
https://ransquawk.com/blog

Zombie-yritykset ovat yleiseurooppalainen ongelma. Heikot yritykset. Heikot pankit, joiden pystyssä pysyminen kiinni yritysten ja valtioiden luototuksen jatkumisesta. Heikot valtiot, joiden velansaanti on kiinni pankkien pystyssä pysymisestä. Triple doom loop.

Ehkä paras vähään aikaan näkemäni markkina&talous-katsaus:

https://e-markets.nordea.com/?fbclid=IwAR0WaEHl_iZDUQevpVSSWTisAhb3cvUl…

Toinen:

Muutamat kuvat:

Keskuspankkien yhteenlaskettu ostoaktiviteetti on painunut pakkaselle, ihan kuten jo aiemmin tiedettiin. Osakemarkkinoiden hyvän vedon loppuminen samaan aikaan ei myöskään ole yllätys.

Hyvä kysymys, miten tästä eteenpäin: todennäköisesti USA:n keskuspankki joutuu hidastamaan tai pysäyttämään koronnostot ensi vuonna, ja todennäköisesti keskuspankit joutuvat myös harkitsemaan ostotoiminnan käynnistämistä uudelleen.

Kuva

Kauppasodan kustannuksista 82% kaatuu Kiinalle, 18% USA:lle.

China Is Paying for Most of Trump's Trade War, Research Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/china-is-paying-for-most-of-trump-s-trade-war-research-says

Kauppasodan kustannuksista 82% kaatuu Kiinalle, 18% USA:lle.

China Is Paying for Most of Trump's Trade War, Research Says
EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union: U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.

The Trump administration selected products with the highest “price elasticity,” or high availability of substitutes, according to Zoller-Rydzek and Felbermayr. The Chinese products hit by Trump’s tariffs can mostly be replaced by other goods, forcing exporters to cut selling prices to keep buyers.

“Through its strategic choice of Chinese products, the U.S. government was not only able to minimize the negative effects on U.S. consumers and firms, but also to create substantial net welfare gains in the U.S.,” the researchers wrote.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/china-is-paying-for-most-of-trump-s-trade-war-research-says