NOVEMBER 17TH, 2021 07:00 CET

Catena Media plc: Interim Report January - September 2021

Highlights of the third quarter of 2021

• Operating revenue was EUR 33.1m (24.9), an increase of 33 percent.
• Organic growth was 23 percent, or 34 percent excluding the now-regulated German sports betting and casino market.
• New depositing customers (NDCs) totalled 153,701 (94,710), an increase of 62 percent.
• Revenue from North American sports betting and casino rose by 124 percent and accounted for 51 percent (30) of group revenue.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased by 33 percent and totalled EUR 16.0m (12.0), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 48 percent (48).
• EBITDA, including items affecting comparability of EUR 1.1m (-0.2), increased by 23 percent and totalled EUR 14.9m (12.2), equal to an EBITDA margin of 45 percent (49).
• Earnings per share were EUR -0.51 (0.05) before dilution and EUR -0.34 (0.03) after dilution, reflecting the one-off EUR 49.4m impairment charge recognised during the quarter.
• Operating cash flow increased by 17 percent to EUR 9.9m (8.5).
• Cash and cash equivalents totalled EUR 28.6m (45.4) on 30 September.
• Net interest-bearing liabilities (NIBL) were EUR 59.3m (67.4) on 30 September, resulting in a leverage ratio (NIBL/adjusted EBITDA) of 0.87 (1.32).
• On 14 July, an extraordinary general meeting resolved to authorise the company to acquire its own shares.
• On 9 September Catena Media announced the acquisition of North American online sports betting and casino affiliation assets from i15 Media, LLC, for a total purchase price of USD 45 million.
• From 13 September to 15 October, the group repurchased 1,504,810 of Catena Media ordinary shares, resulting in a cash outflow of EUR 8.6m.

Highlights of the first nine months 2021                     

• Operating revenue was EUR 104.2m (79.4), an increase of 31 percent.
• Organic growth was 29 percent, or 42 percent excluding the now-regulated German sports betting and casino market.
• New depositing customers (NDCs) totalled 451,272 (318,565), an increase of 42 percent.
• Revenue from North American sports betting and casino rose by 122 percent and accounted for 49 percent (29) of group revenue.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased by 41 percent and totalled EUR 56.0m (39.7), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 54 percent (50).
• EBITDA, including items affecting comparability of EUR 5.1m (2.0), increased by 35 percent and totalled EUR 50.9m (37.7), equal to an EBITDA margin of 49 percent (47).
• Earnings per share were EUR -0.18 (0.08) before dilution and EUR -0.12 (0.05) after dilution and reflected the one-off EUR 49.4m impairment charge recognised in Q3.
• Operating profit was negatively impacted by a non-cash impairment on intangible assets of EUR 49.4 (zero). EUR 42.8m related to German sports assets acquired between 2016 and 2018 while EUR 6.6m pertained to French sports assets acquired in 2018.
• Operating cash flow increased by 27 percent to EUR 47.1m (37.1).

Significant events after the period

• On 19 October Catena Media announced preliminary results for the third quarter and an impairment charge on German and French sports assets.
• The company issued 2,207,357 new shares with a value of USD 12.5 million as part-payment of the i15 media assets acquisition.
• In October, total revenue grew 21 percent, or 36 percent excluding the German sports betting and casino market, compared to the same month last year. Revenue from North American sports betting and casino grew 125 percent.

Etukäteen tiedossa oli, että vähintään semihyvältä näyttää. Viimeinen pallura raportin tärkein. Kasvu jatkunut lokakuussa 2021. Jenkkilästä tulee tällä hetkellä about puolet liikevaihdosta ja jenkkilä kasvanut lokakuussa edelleen 125 %. Nöt bääd.

CTM osari Q1/2021:

Operating revenue was EUR 40.7m (26.7), an increase of 53 percent.
• Organic search revenue increased by 61 percent and totalled
EUR 38.4m (23.9).
• Adjusted EBITDA increased by 94 percent and totalled EUR 25.1m (12.9), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 62 percent (48).
• EBITDA, including items affecting comparability of EUR 1.8m
(0.4), increased by 87 percent and totalled EUR 23.3m (12.5), equal to
an EBITDA margin of 57 percent (47). Out of the EUR 1.8m items affecting comparability, EUR 1.7m related to restructuring.
• Earnings per share were EUR 0.26 (0.15) before dilution and EUR 0.17 (0.15) after dilution.
• Operating cash flow increased by 85 percent to EUR 20.8m (11.2).
• Cash and cash equivalents totalled EUR 37.5m (19.3) on 31 March.
• Net interest-bearing liabilities (NIBL) were EUR 40.8m (143.2) on 31 March, resulting in a leverage ratio (NIBL/adjusted EBITDA) of 0.64 (3.17).
• New depositing customers (NDCs) totalled 157,546 (119,529), an increase of 32 percent.
• Revenue from iGaming operations in the US rose by more than 200 percent to EUR 22.4m, equivalent to 55% of total Q1 revenue.
• Göran Blomberg was appointed Interim CEO, effective 7 January 2021.
• Michael Daly was appointed group CEO, effective 1 March 2021.
Significant events after the period
• On 9 April 2021, Catena Media published preliminary earnings for the first quarter, ahead of the Q1 report, due to exceptionally strong performance.
• On 4 May 2021 Catena Media acquired Lineups.com, a leading US online sports affiliation company specialising in analytics, betting predictions and tools.
• The company announced on 5 May 2021 it would explore financing alternatives to replace an existing EUR 88.5m bond loan, which matures in March 2022.
• The annual general meeting was held on 12 May 2021.
• The board will hold an extraordinary general meeting on 14 July 2021 for shareholders to take a fresh vote on the extraordinary resolution to authorise a share buyback program. The underlying purpose is flexibility regarding a more efficient capital usage. The intention is to commence share buybacks during the second half of 2021.
• In April, organic revenue grew 15 percent, or 24 percent excluding Germany, compared to average monthly revenue in Q2 2020.

Odotetunlainen raportti. Jenkkiliikevaihdon kasvu selkeä plussa. Huhtikuun 15 % kasvu pieni pettymys vaikkakin Q2 oli viime vuonna vahvin kvartaali. Odotin (lue toivoin) vahvempaa kasvua. Lisäksi pikkuplussina voisi mainita velkaantumisasteen nopean laskun, omien osakkeiden ostosuunnitelma ja vahva kassavirta.

Tuskin isoja kurssiliikkeitä tänään?

WellGo kirjoitti:

Tällä hetkellä huitelee tosiaan lujaa, mutta yksikin Googlen antama manuaalinen rankku Catenan saiteille voi romahduttaa seuraavien neljännesten tulot. Näin kävi esimerkiksi samoilla markkinoilla kilpailevalle XLMedialle vuosi sitten (https://focusgn.com/xlmedia-seeks-google-resubmission-as-revenue-plunges)

Hankala arvioida, kuinka todennäköisesti tuo voi Catenan sivuihin iskeä, mutta perusteita varmasti löytyy tuhannen ostetun linkin jne myötä. Firma on kuitenkin 100% riippuvainen Googlesta ja riskin realisoituessa voi yhdessä yössä tipahtaa kolmannes tuotoista.

Erittäin aiheellinen muistutus tämän kaltaisten osakkeiden riskeistä. Tämä ei ole Kone tai WMT -tyylinen yhtiö omistaa.

Minun mielestä Catenaankaan ei kannata sijoittaa yhtään senttiä enempää kuin on vara hävitä. Nyt menee lujaa, isot markkinat ovat aukeamassa mutta riskiäkin piisaa. Ostotarjousoptio tässä toki on koko ajan sisällä. Varmaan alle 100SEK tarjoukset hylätään suoralta kädeltä.

LAK kirjoitti:

Minusta tässä on edelleen huomattavasti enemmän upside potentiaalia kuin downside riskiä.

Edelleen tätä mieltä vaikka tänään 50SEK poks. Uusi tj Daly näkee jenkkilän lisäksi paljon potentiaalia mm UK:ssa, Saksassa, Ontariossa ja Brasiliassa.