Kuuluisa Warren Buffettin indikaattori kertoo USA:n osakemarkkinan olevan merkittävästi yliarvostettu kun markkinan kokonaisarvoa verrataan USA:n BKT:n tasoon.
As pointed by Warren Buffett , the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”
As of 2019-03-05
The Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued. Based on historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 138.3%), it is likely to return -1.5% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.
As of today, the Total Market Index is at $ 28902.9 billion, which is about 138.3% of the last reported GDP. The US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of -1.5%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. This includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 1.87%.