Casteliero kirjoitti:

Aki Pyysing kirjoitti:

Mutta mitään taetta ilmiön toistumisesta ei ole.

Tämä asia on itseänikin vahvasti huvittanut viime aikoina, kun on kaivettu vanhoja kursseja esiin ja vertailtu käyriä. Niiden mukaan seurataan tarkasti vanhoja nousuja ja laskuja. Moni ihan asiantuntijoina kryptopiireissä pidettyjä heppuja on taas näyttänyt näistä käyristä, että kun kaksi kertaa aiemmin on tullut parabolisia nousuja (50-100x), niin se on nytkin tulossa ja ihan nurkan takana. Eli jos tässä kohta noustaan miljoonaan euroon per Bitcoin, niin onko se sitten taas siitä neljän vuoden päästä 100 miljoonaa kappale? Ei todellakaan. Siksi en itse juurikaan kuuntele edes näitä "asiantuntijoita", jos heistä heti saa sen vaikutelman, että on vahva Bitcoin bias.

Itse tulee seurattua mm. seuraavan henkilön kryptokirjoituksia, joita tulee lähes päivittäin. http://www.quora.com/profile/Marius-Kramer

Häneltä kysyttiin seuraava kysymys "How many bull markets does bitcoin have left?" 

Vastaus:

"I think 2.

So far, bull runs usually come with a 100x multiplier on Bitcoin.

However, the next one will probably only come with a 70x multiple from $3,000 to $200,000 over the next 3–5 years, extending until 2023 and bringing the total crypto market cap to about $200B * 70 = $14T. Afterwards we will probably have a bear market down to $50,000 and a total crypto market cap of $3T for 2 years until 2025.

Until now, the average bull run was followed by a correction of 85%. However, it seems that in more mature markets, bull become less intense with less multiples and smaller corrections.

For that reason, we will probably have a 5–10 years 40x bull market from $50,000 to $2M per Bitcoin as the last one from 2025 until probably 2032 with a total crypto market cap of $3T * 40 = $120T.

Keep in mind that Bitcoin is just a placeholder here and is synonymous with the whole crypto market cap. So, if Bitcoin goes up by 50x in this example, it doesn’t have to be Bitcoin. It can be any coin that takes the number one spot and go up by 50x then while the whole crypto market cap will also go up by 50x. The best candidates for those coins are IOTA, ELA, Holo and in a couple of months probably QKC, too.

In 2032, once we have reached $2M per “Bitcoin”, it will probably self-correct itself again to $1M, but then remain stable between $500,000-$2M for decades.

At this point, the total crypto market cap is probably at $100T. Since, the total money that exists in the world is an estimated $1200T, this seems like a good approximation.

Throughout all of those bull runs, there will probably be a few more coins that replace the current #1 coin."

Lainattu http://www.quora.com/How-many-bull-markets-does-bitcoin-have-left/answer/Marius-Kramer

Toinen mielenkiintoinen kysymys kysyttiin myös häneltä "How will the BTC halving in around May 2020 affect 2019's prices since historically a year before the halving, BTC's run usually begins building up?"

Vastaus:

"Good question. Let’s look at it.

We’ve had two halvenings before, in 2013 and in 2017. The next halvening is in May 2020.

http://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-d81e069c83a17368569bd8e3dc9caa27

http://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-95783e6bf03c69437543926878d2b8dd

In both cases, the Bitcoin price increased by 300% 1 year before the halvening until the halvening happened.

1. In the year before first halvening it went from $3 to $10. Directly after the halvening Bitcoin went on a 20x bull run from $10 to $200 within 1 year.

2. In the year before the second halvening it went from $300 to $1,000. Directly after the halvening Bitcoin went on a 20x bull run from $1,000 to $20,000 within 1 year.

3.In the year before the third halvening it went from $3,000 to $10,000. Directly after the halvening Bitcoin went on a 20x bull run $10,000 to $200,000 within one year?

http://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-5afc4ea4beec7964fa4b2092fe7725cf

Conclusion

It really looks uncanny.

With the upcoming halvening, we should see a 300% increase in price starting in May 2019 until May 2020. After that, we should see a 20x bull run from $10,000 to $200,000 within 1 year.

Interesting numbers. That’s no guarantee that it will happen like that, but past performance is still the best indicator for future results, even if it’s not always right.

Show me a better indicator for future results than past performance and I’ll remove this line. But there is none. Past performance isn’t perfect, but there is still no better indicator for future results."

Lainattu http://www.quora.com/How-will-the-BTC-halving-in-around-May-2020-affect-2019s-prices-since-historically-a-year-before-the-halving-BTCs-run-usually-begins-building-up/answer/Marius-Kramer