Antti Hyppänen wrote:
Minulla ei ainakaan ole oikein mitään hajua tuosta mainaus-maailmasta, enkä kyllä muutenkaan kovin aktiivisesti seuraa tuota Bitcoinia (poislukien kurssi, joka vaikuttaa vähän kaikkeen, sekä tietty ETF:t, jotka vaikuttaa kurssiin). Eli joku muu voi ottaa tuosta kiinni jos tietämystä on. Antti?
En seuraa noita louhintafirmoja, joten en osaa kommentoida. Mä koen saavani ihan riittävästi tuottopotentiaalia ja riskiä "puhtaista kryptoista", joten en näe mitään syytä lähteä gämbläämään saanko esim. Coinbasesta tai Microstrategsta tai MARA:sta paremman tuoton. Ehkä saisi, tai ehkä ei osaisi myydä oikeaan aikaan, ehkä saisi huonomman jne. Ei ole aikaa paneutua noihin firmoihin riittävästi.
Tähän löytyi mielestäni hyvä SA kirjoitus, kannattaa lukea jos mainarit (MARAn lisäksi tuossa muitakin) kiinnostaa:
Miten näette Bitcoin louhijoiden tilanteen sijoitusmielessä, esim MARA, joka noussut hurjasti?
Vaikeustasohan noussut paljon ja siihen päälle halving niin kustannukset per louhittu Bitcoin kohoaa jatkuvasti merkittävästi. MARAlla toki paljon Bitcoineja hallussaan mutta eihän nuo määrät oikein nykykurssia pitäisi tukea, Bitcoinin arvon pitäisi nousta merkittävästi.++
Toistan tämän kun se meni jotenkin ohi vai eikö asiantuntijoilla tosiaan ole tähän kantaa vai eikö kuulu tähän keskusteluun?
Itse nyt kärvistelen myydäkö louhijat, jotka nousseet lähes exponentiaalisesti bitcoiniin nähden ja siirtää varat suoraan bitcoin ja myös eth.
Miten näette Bitcoin louhijoiden tilanteen sijoitusmielessä, esim MARA, joka noussut hurjasti?
Vaikeustasohan noussut paljon ja siihen päälle halving niin kustannukset per louhittu Bitcoin kohoaa jatkuvasti merkittävästi. MARAlla toki paljon Bitcoineja hallussaan mutta eihän nuo määrät oikein nykykurssia pitäisi tukea, Bitcoinin arvon pitäisi nousta merkittävästi.
Esittelin Intrumin casen Seeking Alpha kirjoittajalle, joka erikoistunut finanssiin. Kommentit:
- 2024 velat kunnossa. 2025 velat näyttävät pahalta.
- Bondimarkkina on fiksu -> Kannattaa luottaa signaaleihin. Heti kun bondit lähtee ylös niin voi katsoa isomalla betsillä osaketta.
- Firmalla on täysi mahdollisuus selviytyä ja siinä skenaariossa 3-5X näyttää "nopealla aikataululla" mahdolliselta.
- Riski johonkin "isompaan järjestelyyn" on varsin todellinen.
Toisekseen näen että Cerberukselle myyty potti tosiaan ei edusta mitään erityistä kermaa saatavakakussa. Ja luo pohjaa strategialle, jossa saatavia aletaan hoitamaan joint venture mallilla.
Kirja-arvon sulaminen ilmeisesti tapahtunut alaskirjauksien myötä. Jotain saatavakokonaisuuksia on kirjoissa nollana. Siinä on vain voitettavaa jos jotain saa perittyä takaisin. Lopullinen tuomio tulee tulevan kassavirran myötä. Sinänsä positiivista, että kirja-arvolle joka tapauksessa tuli Cerberus kaupan myötä jonkin asteinen vahvitus.
Kenella SA kirjoittajalle? Ei ne yleensä yksityiskyselyihin vastaile.
Paras SA kirjoittaja Intrumin osalta tähän mennessä on ollut Wolr Report
"aika" pitkä lainaus Microstrategyn analyytikkopuhelusta, mutta kopioin nyt tähän kun kaikki ei ehkä pysty lukemaan SA artikkelia ja aika mielenkiintoinen puheenvuoro mjelenkiintoiselta henkilöltä:
Thank you, Andrew. I'm Michael Saylor, the Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy. First, I'd like to go over a few performance statistics with you. Since August 10th or August 11th, when we adopted our bitcoin strategy, our stock has outperformed bitcoin, as well as every major asset class along with every major big tech stock, as well as every major enterprise software stock.
We're very proud of this. And for those of you who have followed us on this journey, it's been a number of steps every single quarter that got us here. But I think that this is a very useful chart to illustrate and discuss some key elements in our strategy and in our business outlook. First of all, with regard to bitcoin, 2024 is the year of birth of bitcoin as an institutional grade asset class. Bitcoin is being increasingly referred to as an asset class and as a new asset class. And in fact, it's the first new asset class of the modern era. It's difficult to really name another asset class. Gold, when it was converted to ETFs wasn't a new asset. Commodities were never a new asset. 30 years ago, the S&P Index was converted into an ETF, the Spider. That wasn't a new asset then, but it was certainly a revolution in finance.
And so, bitcoin represents many things, but one thing it represents is the first institutional-grade digital asset. And so, we've now completed the first 15 years of the bitcoin life cycle. And in that first 15 years, it was largely unregulated retail asset misunderstood. The next 15 years, I would expect will be a regulated institutional high growth period of bitcoin. Very, very different in many ways from the last 15 years. Bitcoin itself is performing well for a number of reasons. But one reason is because it represents the digital transformation of capital. If we look at some of these other great performers on the chart, like Microsoft and Google and Meta and Apple, they're all digital transformation plays. They represent the digital transformation of devices and the digital transformation of relationships and the digital transformation of information and books and libraries and entertainment and education and the digital transformation of corporate processes at, say, Microsoft.
Well bitcoin’s very profound idea, it's, what if we actually transformed capital from its analog form, capital in the form of land or buildings, or capital in the form of shares in an actual physical company, or bushels of corn, or diamonds, or bars of gold, or capital in the form of Fiat currency or bonds. And what if we could actually make that into a digital asset that's created in order to address all of the historic perceived shortcomings of analog assets. What if we had all the benefits of gold, but none of the liabilities of gold? What if we had the benefits of the share of stock, but none of the liabilities of a share of stock? What if we had the benefits of a building but not the liabilities of the building? A synthetic digital asset.
And so increasingly investors are recognizing this. That's why bitcoin is up 260% since we embarked on our bitcoin strategy. That's why it's outperforming the S&P and the NASDAQ. That's why it's outperforming gold, silver and bonds. Bitcoin isn't a company. And it's profoundly important to understand that it's not a company, it's an asset class. And as such, based on a commodity, it has spawned an entire universe of companies, products, and services built on that asset class. So part of the driver of bitcoin's performance is not just its protocol and superior fundamental characteristics, but another driver is the industry of bitcoin miners that secure the network and bitcoin custodians and a set of bitcoin exchanges.
So we see lots of public companies that are bitcoin miners now. We see many, many companies that are entering into bitcoin custody, like Anchorage, like Bitco, like Fidelity, like Coinbase. We see Bitcoin exchanges, like Block, acting as an exchange, like Fidelity, like Coinbase, like Gemini, et cetera. We're going to see more exchanges. We see an explosion in bitcoin wallets, different software applications for mobile phones or devices in order to move bitcoin around. We've got bitcoin devices themselves for signing and securing the network. There's a whole host of companies in the lightning ecosystem and other bitcoin L2s that are scaling the network.
And now, of course, this year, we have bitcoin ETPs, Spot ETPs, and even derivatives of those ETPs, companies that are going to trade the volatility of the underlying Spot ETPs are starting to pop-up in application form. And of course, these ETPs aren't just local or aren't just United States based, but they're global. And that's significant, because every single company everywhere in the world is meeting a different set of compliance requirements. A bitcoin ETP in Hong Kong will serve a different need, meet different compliance requirements and meet the needs of different types of investors from a bitcoin ETP in Canada or in France or in the UK or in the United States. And so, all of these various actors are scaling the bitcoin network with increasing enthusiasm.
MicroStrategy, as we've noted, is unique as of now as the first bitcoin development company, but hopefully not for long. We've published our playbook and we're showing other companies how to do it. And there's a lot of real estate development companies in the world, companies that issue securities and develop real estate. There are a lot of oil or petroleum exploration and development companies in the world. There are natural gas development companies in the world. There are software development companies in the world. So we believe that as awareness builds a bitcoin as a commodity, as a global commodity, as a unique asset class, I think we're going to see more entrepreneurs enter the space and start to work in these various areas to add value to the ecosystem.
It's worthwhile to note, people are, in the early days, they thought of bitcoin as currency and a medium of exchange, and that creates a lot of misunderstandings and a lot of inappropriate or irrelevant criticisms with the advent of these new ETPs from BlackRock and from Fidelity. Awareness of bitcoin -- can you please go back? Yeah, let's stay on the slide. Awareness of bitcoin as a store of value asset is growing and people are starting to see bitcoin not as digital currency, but as digital property or digital gold, a digital store of value. You could think of it as gold or you could think of it as property or think of it as another kind of digital store of value.
But in that regard, you kind of have to compare it against other liquid stores of value that people are using. So for right now, the most common alternative to bitcoin for a tech enthusiast would be to invest in big tech, like the Magnificent 7, the Microsoft, the Google, the Meta’s. But as you can see, when the market cap of a big tech company doubles, you have a company doing a lot of work, generating a lot of cash flow to support the market cap. And the work that they have to do doubles. And if they want to double their market cap, their value, again, they have to keep generating -- they have to keep doing more work, generating more cash, because traditional finance technique is, I dividend out my cash flows or I buy the stock back. Two very famous examples of this traditional approach are Apple and Meta, who are both engaging in monstrous capital return programs.
So a stock is returning its capital and its value or store of value promise is based upon being able to grow its cash flows faster than the rate of inflation. So they're working increasingly hard. If you want to make it 10 times more valuable, eventually you got to come up with a way to get 10 times more cash flows. And that's very different than the bitcoin, because Bitcoin is the asset. So whereas big tech is asset poor, cash flow rich, bitcoin is asset rich and the strategy with bitcoin becomes asset rich. Now we're moving into a macroeconomic environment where we're going to see increasing monetary inflation to pay off the debt. That's well understood. That was even acknowledged by [Jerome Powell] (ph) in a 60 minutes interview this weekend, where he expressed concern.
And so as the monetary supply expands, if your strategy is to generate more cash flows, you're going to have to grow your cash flows faster than the rate of monetary inflation. And that means that a big tech strategy becomes increasingly difficult. And so you could almost say, a big tech company becomes more difficult, gets harder, right, as the value increases, but bitcoin gets more compelling as the value of bitcoin increases because the liquidity increases and the network of holders increases. So we're in the first year of bitcoin being viewed seriously as a possible institutional grade store of value. And I believe that over time, it's going to appeal to technology investors as they understand it as digital capital and the digital transformation of capital.
And there's a reason that we believe we can outperform other strategies and why we believe a commodity like bitcoin is a better long-term store of value than just buying a portfolio of stocks, because it isn't a cash derivative. I think that it's worthwhile to point out that the arrival of the ETFs have been a catalytic moment, because if you believe bitcoin is only valuable as a medium of exchange, then it's very easy to say, well, it's slow, it's not good medium exchange, it's not the dollar. There are lots of tax problems and liabilities where there are lots of KYC problems, there are a lot of pricing problems, accounting problems, and you just dismiss it.
But of course, if we look at all the wealth in the world, only a small percentage of the wealth is stored in a checking account as a medium of exchange. Most of the wealth is really store of value or its useful capital. And so, as that narrative shifts from digital currency to digital property and from medium of exchange to store of value. Past criticisms are becoming irrelevant. And now if you look at bitcoin as a digital gold, as gold, it can be 10 times what it is, and as property it could be 100 times what it is. And we don't need to address any of the traditional currency criticisms or medium of exchange criticisms.
In fact, one could say simply as a store of value, there's no reason why bitcoin can't continue to outperform and can't become 100 times what it is. And these ETPs that have been released are doing a tremendous job of scaling bitcoin as a store of value, because they're putting it within the grasp. You can buy $100 worth of it in millions or 10s of millions or 100 millions of accounts with one-one hundredth of the friction -- perhaps one-one thousandth of the friction that traditional investors faced just a few years ago when they had to go set up a crypto account on a crypto exchange. And then they had to figure out who their bitcoin custodian is going to be or whether they're going to do self-custody. And there are large classes of investors and institutional investors that either can't or won't do that. So we're living through a very exciting period.
Now we can go to the next slide. The question is, what's micro strategy going to do in order to support the bitcoin network, in order to benefit our shareholders from these trends? Well, as you can see, and as we've said, we view ourselves as a bitcoin development company. And what does that mean? Well, that means we're going to do everything we can to grow the bitcoin network. We're going to do everything we can to acquire more bitcoin. And we're going to do everything we can to benefit our shareholders and do this in an creative fashion.
And when we consider our options and our unique strengths, we boil it down to four. First of all, our company structure. We are unique as an operating company. And that means we have active control over our capital structure. And we can do things operating companies can do that trust companies like, say, Spot Bitcoin ETPs, they can't do. And that's a wide range of things. One of those things is, we can develop software. And of course, we'll continue to develop business intelligence software. There's extraordinary opportunities to blend artificial intelligence with our traditional business intelligence customer base. It's great value. And we will also continue to pursue bitcoin development opportunities. So develop applications that create value from the bitcoin network, either working on the base layer or working with L2 protocols like the Lightning protocol in order to do this.
We're very enthusiastic about that. And as we develop this software, we will release it either to the benefit of the bitcoin network or we'll release it to generate more revenue and work to generate more cash flow so that we can buy more bitcoin. Another thing that we can do uniquely as an operating company is, we can generate cash from operations. There are lots and lots of ways to generate cash from operations, too many for me to enumerate right now. As Andrews pointed out, we've reinvested $726 million in cash to date in the bitcoin network. We expect to continue to be able to reinvest cash into bitcoin acquisitions. And when we do this, this is, we believe, very accretive to our shareholders.
And the last point that I would want to make is, we're very fortunate to be able to leverage the capital markets. There really are no companies that have, to the extent that we have, been able to leverage the capital markets to acquire bitcoin. We have acquired bitcoin with senior secured debt issuance. We have acquired bitcoin with convertible debt issuance. We've acquired bitcoin with equity issuance. And those are just three ways we've done it in the past. And as we look forward, we're going to consider all possible capital market opportunities. So perhaps preferred equity would be a route for us to acquire bitcoin with leverage that's beneficial to our shareholders. Perhaps other types of equity would be or continued equity like we have with our ATMs, perhaps convertible debt, perhaps structured notes, perhaps secured debt or perhaps unsecured debt.
We try to evaluate all options, we keep our options open, and we ask ourselves the question, is this prudent? And then also, is this accretive? Is this going to be good for our shareholders? And of course, with any discussion of leverage, we don't want too much. We want to just pick just the right amount of leverage, the leverage that allows us to benefit our shareholders without creating undue uncertainty. So this is an ongoing opportunistic exercise of ours quarter by quarter. And of course, every single quarter we expect the bitcoin market, the capital markets, the debt markets will evolve. And so, we pride ourselves on being nimble and being able to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves as we did in Q4 with our equity issuance.
Sometimes it's appropriate to go fast. Sometimes it's appropriate to go slow. Sometimes it's appropriate to do nothing and wait for better opportunities to present themselves. The nice thing about our situation right now is that, we have all these options and we believe we're structured very, very well to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves in the bitcoin era of institutional adoption that we see over the coming 15 years. It won't be like the first 15 years, but we believe it will be a healthy growth period presenting many, many opportunities for corporations such as ours as more and more institutional investors and retail investors become aware of bitcoin and as regulatory clarity spreads everywhere in the world.
Aki Pyysing wrote:
Tmä oli tavanomaistakin parempi Kolme markkinasoturia -jakso. Ketään kolmesta en (kai) tiennyt ennestään, mutta kaikilla oli imo persoonallista näkemystä eikä pelkkää perusjargonia. Luin hyvin mielelläni.
Kyllä, oikein hyvä, kiitos taas!
Ihan uteliaisuudesta, saako näitä BTC ETF:iä pankkien/Nordnetin/kenen kautta Suomessa? Luxissa tuli ainakin Swissquoten (jonne olen tehnyt tilin mutten käyttänyt mihinkään) mainos näistä.
Mandatum nopealla haulla löytyy ainakin $BRRR (ticker keksijälle kunnon bonukset, kun tämä ainoa mikä tuli mieleen). Suosittelevat toki ettet osta tuotetta, mutta antaa ostaa. Yleisesti minun tuntumalla Mandatum on aikalailla laajin tarjonta tuotteita/maita, joita ei suositella kenellekkään, mutta mahdollistavat kaupankäynnin.
Saitko siis tehtyä läpimenevän osto-toimeksiannon?
mm. Nordnetillä usa etffät kyllä myös löytyy, mutta ostotoimari ei mene läpi