Maersk

Maerskin osakkeet ovat monella tapaa myös romanttisia. Merenkulku on aina romanttista, itse herra on mitä  mystisin hahmo ja osakkeetkin maksavat vajaat pari tuhatta euroa kappale. Jos jollain osakkeella saa seuraa, niin tämä on yksi niistä.

Ystavallinen tapa ilmaista,  etta onpa kallis. 

Kahden päivän takaa FT:stä:
 

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Maersk targets first share buyback as it upgrades profit forecast

By Richard MilneAuthor alerts

©AFP

AP Møller-Maersk is planning its first ever share buyback of $1bn next year and it has upgraded its full-year profit guidance after cost cuts generated a strong second quarter.

The Danish owner of the world's largest container shipping line said underlying net profit should now be more than $4.5bn, up from its already raised forecast of $4bn three months ago.

More

ON THIS STORY

• Lex Maersk – containment strategy
• Maersk forms new alliance with MSC
• Maersk writes off $1.7bn from Brazil oil

ON THIS TOPIC

• Lex Maersk – all at sea
• Maersk rejects tanker deal bribery claims
• Lex Maersk – naut yet
• Maersk raises profit guidance

IN SHIPPING

• NOL weighs sale of logistics arm
• Shipping partnership to end after 19 years
• US port strike fears hit supply chains
• Home factors key to Beijing block on ship deal

Maersk Line – which transports about 15 per cent of seaborne freight, making it a good proxy for global trade – increased its net profit from $439m a year earlier to $547m in the second quarter.

Nils Andersen, chief executive, told the Financial Times that container demand between Asia and Europe had surprised positively in the quarter but he said this was probably evidence of companies building up stock and did not reflect the underlying economy. He added that growth in the US should pick up in the second half.

The group kept its forecast for global trade growth of 4-5 per cent but upgraded Maersk Line’s net profit outlook from being just over last year’s $1.5bn to “significantly above” that level.

A ruthless focus on cost-cutting has already given Maersk industry-leading returns and the family-controlled Danish conglomerate said more buybacks could follow. The group had previously retired some of its own treasury shares.

“We have a very strong balance sheet and strong underlying earnings. Even if we have a very good investment programme going forwards, we still see some excess capital there. We are not paying out all of it, should we come up with new investment ideas,” Mr Andersen said.

Maersk Line said average rates had fallen 2.7 per cent in the second quarter but costs were cut 4.4 per cent. Volumes increased 6.6 per cent, leading to a rise in revenues from $6.7bn to $6.9bn.

Maersk, which is one of the few container lines that is profitable, said its operating margin in the first quarter was 9.8 percentage points higher than the average of its rivals.

Mr Andersen said he would not lift the target for return on invested capital for Maersk Line from its current 8.5 per cent despite it exceeding the 10 per cent the rest of the group has to earn. “It’s tempting . . . But I think it would be unwise to raise it when the rest of the industry is making losses or breaking even.”

Video

Maersk and big ships

March 2014: Nils Andersen, chief executive of AP Møller-Maersk, talks about prospects for global growth, big ships and the competitiveness of Europe

Group net profit surged from $836m to $2.3bn as a gain from the sale of most of Maersk’s stake in Denmark’s largest supermarket was only partially offset by an impairment charge of $1.7bn on its Brazilian oil assets.

The port terminals to drilling rigs group said the target for its oil unit – long the profit driver of the conglomerate – to reach 400,000 barrels of oil in production by 2020 was not an absolute one and was subject to projects meeting its double-digit return goal.

Maersk fell foul of Chinese regulators in its attempts to form an operational alliance with the two other leading container shipping groups on three of the world’s most popular trade routes. But it is hoping for a part of the expected multibillion-dollar savings through a more modest vessel-sharing plan with MSC, the second-largest container shipping line.

Shares in Maersk closed up nearly 5 per cent at DKr660.

Kuten sanottua, merikuljetuksessa kiinteä kapasiteetti on valtavan hidasta mukautumaan. Laivat voivat ajaa hitaammin, jolloin ne kuluttavat vähemmän polttoainetta, mutta kuljetukset hidastuvat. Tällä kuitenkin voidaan parantaa kapasiteetin käyttöastetta heikon kysynnän aikoina. Laivatilaukset taasen lisäävät kapasiteettia, mutta erittäin hitaasti ja ovat erittäin kalliita. Esimerkiksi 2011 Maersk tilasi 10 superalusta $1.9b yhteishintaan (http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/maersk-buys-10-super-sized-container-s…). Pitkällä aikavälillä uudet tilaukset parantavat kannattavuutta, koska ne ovat aina edellisiä taloudellisempia, kuten lentokoneissakin.

"The vessels’ fuel consumption will be 50 percent below the industry average and 20 percent less than the Emma Maersk, the carrier said."

Baltic Dry:ssa on miehekäs kulmakerroin ollut elokuun alusta. Toki taustalla myös dollarin vahvistuminen, mutta silti +50 % reilussa kuukaudessa:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Maerskilta de facto tulosvaroitus ylikapasiteetin jatkumisesta 15-16-vuosina. -2,6 %. Anskattoo pystyykö Maersk käyttämään tilannetta hyväkseen markkinaosuuksien kaappaamiseksi. Sillä on kuitenkin superkonttialusten tehokkuushyöty vahva.

Maerskilla oli siis eilen pääomapäivät ja sieltä tulleiden esitystietojen, ei siis varsinaista negaria, mukaisesti Maersk laski 3,5 % Tanskan kruunuissa mitattuna. Tässä Bloombergin yhteenveto:

Maersk Sees Deeper Cost Cuts at Shipping Line After MSC Deal

By Christian Wienberg  Sep 24, 2014 2:14 PM GMT+0200 

Nov2014MarMayJulSep10,000.0012,000.0014,000.00* Price chart for AP MOELLER-MAERSK A/S-B. Click flags for important stories.MAERSKB:DC14460.00-520.00 -3.47%

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S (MAERSKB) said its container-shipping line, the world’s largest, can do more to cut costs as freight rates continue to decline.

Measures will include slowing vessel speeds further to save fuel costs, the Copenhagen-based company said today in a presentation. Maersk Line’s partnership with Mediterranean Shipping Co., which still requires regulator approval, will result in $350 million annual savings, it said.

Maersk Line, which transports about 15 percent of the world’s containers, has been battling industry overcapacity. A boom in ship orders, coinciding with the global recession, triggered the worst price slump since containerization spread in the 1970s. The unit has reduced spending to beat the industry’s average profitability and on Aug. 19 raised its profit forecast for 2014.

“We will continue to drive out costs and will have a deflationary mind-set,” Soeren Skou, chief executive officer at Maersk Line, said in a presentation. In a market where rates decline, “lowest costs win.”

The current gap between supply and demand will be “constant in the near term,” he said.

Vessel Investments

Maersk Line won’t need to add new ships until 2017, one year later than the company estimated in 2013, the CEO said. It plans to invest $3 billion a year from 2015 to 2019 on new vessels and on retrofitting current ones as well as adding containers, he said.

Maersk said in July it will start the partnership with Geneva-based MSC after a planned venture, which also included Marseilles, France-based CMA CGM SA, was blocked by competition authorities.

Global container shipping demand will rise 4 percent to 6 percent in 2015 and increase at the same pace in 2016, the company said. Growth in the industry’s vessel capacity will be 7 percent next year and 4 percent to 6 percent in 2016, it said.

Maersk also said its oil unit will maintain a target of increasing daily production to 400,000 barrels by 2020 from more than 240,000 barrels estimated this year, “subject to profitable terms.” The company has seen progress on “key projects” to meet the target.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-24/maersk-sees-350-million-msc-de… 

Baltic Drynkin erektiokin lurpahti, joten voipi olla ettei tässä nyt ihan hirmuisia merenkulun orgioita ole tänä talvena:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

Nestekaasumarkkinat  ovat todellakin murroksessa shalegasin myötä. USA:ssa on vieläkin voimassa jalostamattomien öljyraakaaineiden vientikielto, joka on perua öljynkriisistä. Lisäksi LNG-terminaalikapasiteetti on onneton. Pitkällä aikavälillä vallitsee aivan hurja potentiaali USA->Japani -viennissä, sillä kaasu maksaa Japanissa 3x sen mitä USA:ssa. Tästä johtuen ei ole mitään toivoa, että Eurooppa ikinä saisi USA:sta riittävästi maakaasua korvaamaan Venäjän tuontia, Qatarista ehkä, jos noita terminaaleja tulee riittävästi. Nyt niitä on suuressa määrin vain Espanjassa.

Amerikan vienti on siten pitkän aikavälin kysymys,

Tuotanto kyllä kasvaa hurjasti:

Mutta vienti on vielä varsin pientä ja menee maateitä:

2011:

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2013/11/05/78610/u-…

LNG:n pullonkaulat ovat terminaalit. Jos niiden kapasiteetti kasvaa sekä vienti- että tuontimaissa, lisääntyy kuljetusten kysyntä vastaavasti. Ja kuljetuskalusto taasen on hitaasti lisääntyvää/kuolevaa, joten kuljetushinnta heiluvat, kuten Baltic Dry tekee.

Kiinan vastaanotto kasvaa kivasti:

USA:n vientimahdollisuudet:

Since the early part of the last decade there has been a flurry of construction of new 
import terminals in the United States as declines in conventional natural gas production 
created the perception that more LNG imports would be required to meet an anticipated 
energy shortfall. Table 7 below shows that there are now 11 LNG import terminals in the 
United States with a combined capacity of 18.5 Bcf/d. However, the emergence of 
unconventional shale gas production has reversed the decline in Lower 48 state gas 
production and reduced the need for LNG imports. Despite the addition of considerable 
LNG import capacity, US imports of LNG have hovered around 1 Bcf/d for the past year. 
Indeed, some terminals have applied for and received permission to re-export delivered 
LNG. 

Over the past few years, the focus in the US has been in the development of LNG export 
capacity as a surge in unconventional gas production has dramatically increased lower 48 
natural gas supplies. In May 2011 the Department of Energy gave Cherniere Energy the 
authorization to export up to 2.2 Bcf/d of LNG from its Sabine Pass terminal in Cameron 
Parish, Louisiana for 20 years to any country. Export operations are envisaged to start up 
in 2015. However, in December 2011 the department announced that it would not grant 
additional licences to export domestically produced natural gas to international markets 
until completing a review of cumulative economic impacts of liquefaction projects on US 
markets. This review was undertaken by NERA Economic Consulting and completed in 
December 2012. The report concluded that over a wide range of assumptions about An Overview of the World LNG Market 
And Canada’s Potential for Exports of LNG Page 25 
levels of exports, global market conditions, and the cost of domestic production of natural 
gas, the U.S. was projected to gain net economic benefits from allowing LNG exports. 
One of the aspects the study focused on is the impact of LNG exports from the US on 
domestic natural gas prices and its findings agreed with number of other studies that have 
addressed this issue by concluding that the impact of LNG exports on LNG prices is 
expected to be minimal. These conclusions are primarily driven by the fact that the price 
elasticity of the gas supply curve has increased post shale gas revolution so the market 
can adjust to LNG exports with a very moderate increase in price. 
Following the granting of an export licence to Cherniere the US DOE has granted export 
licences to three other operators in order that they can ship LNG to countries that do not 
have free trade agreements with the U.S. These projects are the Dominion Resources 
facility on Chesapeake Bay that will have an export capacity of 0.77 Bcf/d; the Freeport 
LNG project located in Quintana Island, Texas that will have an export capacity of 1.4 
Bcf/d; and the Lake Charles LNG project located in Louisiana that will have a capacity of 
2 Bcf/d. 

http://www.capp.ca/getdoc.aspx?DocId=237161&DT=NTV

USA:ssa on kova paine olla sallimatta LNG:n vientiä, koska se nostaisi USA:n LNG:n hintaa ja haittaisi siten USA:n energiaintesiivistä teollisuutta, joka nauttii tällä hetkellä 50 % halvemmasta sähköstä mitä saksalaiset maksavat (kiitos vihreiden!).

BW LPG taitaa olla aika uusi alalla? 2013 ottanut velkaa ja lisännyt liikevaihtoa. Yksi voitollinen vuosi takana:

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Financials?s=BW9:DEU

Yleisesti ottaen LNG-related markkina on todella mielenkiintoinen sekä Euroopassa että USA:ssa. USA:ssa suuri vientipotentiaali hirveällä marginaalilla Aasiaan ja Euroopassa taas valtava poliittinen paine tuonnin monipuolistamiselle eli käytännössä LNG-terminaaleille Qatarin tuontia varten. Monet firmat ja toimialat hyötyvät näistä. Pitänee avata oma ketju aiheesta.

LNG-shipping ala saattaa olla erittäin hyvä tie sijoittaa em. LNG-ekspansioihin, koska muilta osin kyse on erittäin poliittisista päätöksistä. On siis vaikea tietää kuka lopulta ostaa, myy ja rakentaa fasiliteetit. Samalla tavoin joku Wärtsilän tapainen erikoisosaaja voisi olla mielenkiintoinen tässäkin mielessä. Täytyy vähän katsella.

Tässä ihan mahtava kalvosetti aiheesta:

http://www.iene.gr/energy-shipping2012/articlefiles/part_II/leroy.pdf

ja tässä siitä topicin kannalta olennaisin asia. Jos tämä gambooli napsuu, niin hyvät on katteet LNG-kuljetuksissa:

Ja tästä näkee (tosin 2012 asti vain kalvosarja) hintakehityksen ja tarjonnan lisäyksen:

Olen tässä kirjoittanut LNG, mutta olettaisin LPG:n olevan olennaisesti sama ala tällä tarkastelun tasolla.

Omani eilisen closella -15,5 % ja tänään pari pinnaa ylös. Baltic dry 930 eli 2006 alapuolella. Ihan järjetön luku, koska maailmankaupan volyymi kasvaa tuotantoa nopeammin:

(kuva vuodelta 2011, mutta kertoo olennaisen)

Alhainen hinta ajaa kilpailijat markkinoilta ja Maerskin supertehokkaat laivat valtaavat markkinaosuudet. Suosittelen, vaikka turskaa on tankit täynnä (ja Maerskilla ne ovat isot).

Shipping stocks rally in Hong Kong as Baltic Dry Index surges

PUBLISHED : Thursday, 23 October, 2014, 5:45am

UPDATED : Thursday, 23 October, 2014, 5:45am

Jing Yangjing.yang [at] scmp.com (Yangjing[dot]yang[at]scmp[dot]com)

A surging Baltic Dry Index boosted the dry freight market, but there were worries the stock rally would be short-lived. Photo: Bloomberg

An overnight surge in the dry commodity freight market in London sent Hong Kong shipping stocks soaring yesterday, but analysts are divided on whether the rally is here to stay.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark for freight costs of dry commodities ranging from iron ore to grains, closed 12 per cent higher at 1,090 points at the close of the London market on Tuesday, the highest in a month.

The rebound triggered an industrywide rally in Hong Kong shipping stocks, with the biggest gain recorded by Pacific Basin Shipping, which shot up 12 per cent to HK$3.89.

The Hang Seng Index rose 1.37 per cent.

"The shipping stock rally is a combination of seasonal factors, low stock valuations, and a potential upturn in freight rates. It may continue in the coming month," said Barclays Research director Jon Windham, who upgraded Pacific Basin to "buy" after "sell" and "hold" ratings for four years.

Before the rebound, Pacific Basin's shares had fallen 30 per cent since last month. It is the world's largest operator of handysize and handymax class vessels under 60,000 dwt that carry minor dry bulk cargoes such as fertilisers, cement and logs. Vessels with major bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal are of the 180,000 dwt capesize class, or above.

"It doesn't matter that Pacific Basin carries little iron ore and coal," said Windham. "The correlation between capesize and handysize freight rates is extremely high. Pacific Basin, as a pure dry bulk stock, stands to benefit more.

"Every time the BDI is below or close to 1,000, the market gets more optimistic about shipping stocks, as has been repeatedly proven in the past five years."

Windham expects the index to average at 1,500 next year.

China Cosco and China Shipping Development, state-owned carriers with sizeable dry bulk fleets, closed 5.97 per cent and 6.36 per cent higher, respectively.

UOB Kay Hian analyst Lawrence Li said the rebound in the dry freight market was "within expectations". The fourth quarter is traditionally peak season for dry commodities as mainland steel mills increase stockpiles for winter and grains harvest in the northern hemisphere.

But stocks with an A-share dual listing barely budged on the mainland. China Cosco edged up 0.26 per cent, with China Shipping Development dipping 1.15 per cent.

"A-share investors have much less interest in the shipping market, so the rise in BDI wasn't felt in Shanghai. Plus, A-share stocks already have higher valuation than their H-share peers," said Amos Zhang, a transport analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Freight surge buoys shipping shares

http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1622374/sh…

Osari:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3GG91Y/3622032659x0x793519/…

-1,3 % reaktio just nyt, joten siitä.

EDIT: -0,7 %. Jatkuvien operaatioiden kannattavuus on  menossa hyvään suuntaan.

FT Maerskin osarista:

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support [at] ft.com (ftsales[dot]support[at]ft[dot]com) to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c28afa08-6988-11e4-9f65-00144feabdc0.html#ixz…
 

Maersk warns of slowing global trade

Richard Milne, Nordic CorrespondentAuthor alerts

©Bloomberg

A shipping container is unloaded at a terminal in Garden City, Georgia

AP Møller-Maersk lowered its forecast for growth in global trade as the owner of the world’s largest container shipping line said a slowdown in emerging markets and Europe was weighing on demand.

The Danish group, seen as a bellwether for global trade as it carries 15 per cent of all seaborne freight, said demand had slipped in the third quarter compared with the start of the year and was now expected to increase by 3-5 per cent this year, down from 4-5 per cent.

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More

ON THIS TOPIC

• Lex Maersk – containment strategy
• Maersk targets $1bn share buyback
• Lex Maersk – all at sea
• Maersk rejects tanker deal bribery claims

IN SHIPPING

• OW Bunker on the brink after fraud claims
• Back-up shipping navigation aid goes live
• Maersk to buy new container ships
• NOL weighs sale of logistics arm

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“We see a slowdown in emerging markets, partly driven by a lower need for raw materials from China. Europe – it’s very slow growth, if any, at the moment, and there’s no reason to expect a big change here,” said Nils Andersen, Maersk’s chief executive.

But Denmark’s largest company by sales reported better than expected profits in the third quarter and lifted its profit outlook for Maersk Line, its container shipping business.

Maersk has bucked the trend in a container shipping industry dogged by overcapacity, losses and weak demand. Thanks to aggressive cost cutting and lower use of fuel, Maersk Line is by far the most profitable container group.

Maersk Line estimates its operating margin, which was 8.2 per cent in the second quarter, was 8.5 percentage points higher than the average of its rivals.

It lifted it again in the third quarter, posting an operating margin of 10.5 per cent, and leading Maersk Line to boost its guidance for the year for net profits to more than $2bn compared with $1.5bn previously. Net profit in the third quarter rose by a quarter to $685m.

“The days of rapid growth in containerised trade are over. We have to be happy as an industry that we are still growing . . . But we can still make good business,” said Mr Andersen.

But Maersk is more than just a container shipping group as the conglomerate has sought to emphasise its other businesses in recent years including oil exploration and production, port terminals and drilling rigs.

That means that while Maersk Line benefits from lower fuel costs, Maersk Oil suffers from the falling oil price with Mr Andersen saying the recent drop would cost the business $400m on an annualised basis. But he added that the recent drop in prices meant that it was cheaper to buy oilfields.

The rig business is also facing challenges in the coming months as oil companies scale back their exploration plans. Mr Andersen said there was a high risk of overcapacity and therefore pressure on prices.

But he added that older rigs were likely to be scrapped, favouring Maersk’s modern fleet. “Any industry needs to go through a period of tough competition once in a while to make sure the old assets are forced assets and that you have a reset of expectations. No tree grows to heaven, you know,” he added.

Maersk’s overall net earnings increased by 25 per cent to $1.5bn on flat revenues of $12.1bn and the Danish group stuck to its group profit forecast for the year.

 

Baltic Dry on taas laskussa. Maerskin antama yleisnäkemys on synkkä. Toisaalta Maersk on kyllä ihan helmiyhtiö. Hyvin kannattava, vaikka ajat ovat paskat. Nosti jopa tulevaisuusarvioitaan omalta osaltaan, vaikka alensi alan yleiskehitysarviotaan.

Luulisi, että tällaiset ajat (heikot) loisivat huomattavaa potentiaalia vahvoille. Heikot sortuvat elon tiellä ja äijä se kun porskuttaa. Hyvien aikojen tullessa kassa sitten kilisee. Sama juttu öljypuolella.

maersk on fimin Nordic top10:n ykkonen

käsittääkseni vainn äänivaltaero. ostan itse halvempaa. ei ihan heti iske likviditeetti ongelmat näillä määrillä

Factors Change Effect on the
Group’s profit
rest of year
Oil price for Maersk Oil +/-10 USD/barrel +/-USD 0.1bn
Bunker price +/-100 USD/tonne -/+USD 0.1bn
Container freight rate +/-100 USD/FFE +/-USD 0.2bn
Container freight volume +/-100,000 FFE +/-USD 0.2bn

Maersk on siitä ikävä kuljetusalan yritys, että se häviää, kun polttoaineen hinta laskee.